MANILA, Philippines — Senators Raffy Tulfo, Robin Padilla, and Alan Peter Cayetano, along with Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto, emerged in a statistical tie for the top four positions in an early survey of voter preferences for the 2028 senatorial elections.

The results were released by OCTA Research on Monday, October 19, as part of its third-quarter 2026 Tugon ng Masa nationwide survey.

Tulfo recorded the highest voting preference at 47%, followed by Padilla with 45%, Cayetano with 44%, and Sotto with 42%.

Despite the differences in their percentages, OCTA placed all four personalities within the same statistical rank range of first to fourth, indicating that their relative positions cannot be definitively established from the survey.

Other prospective candidates register voter support

Former Senator Grace Poe received a 36% voting preference, while Senator Loren Legarda recorded 31%.

Other personalities included in the survey were former Makati City Mayor Abby Binay with 29%, Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority Chief Operating Officer Mark Lapid with 28%, and Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero with 27%.

Education Secretary Sonny Angara and former Senator Manny Pacquiao each received 25%, followed by broadcaster Ben Tulfo at 23% and Senator Jinggoy Estrada at 22%.

OCTA explained that several personalities had overlapping statistical rankings, particularly among those competing for places within the preliminary top 12.

Voting preferences shift from previous survey

The latest results also showed changes compared with OCTA's second-quarter 2026 survey conducted in July.

Padilla, who recorded 53.9% in the previous survey, received 45% in the latest round.

Tulfo's voter preference remained relatively stable, moving from 47.4% to 47%, while Cayetano's rating changed from 45.4% to 44%.

Sotto maintained a 42% voting preference across both survey periods.

Meanwhile, Poe's rating moved from 44.5% to 36%, while Legarda's declined from 39% to 31%.

Angara and Escudero registered higher percentages than in the previous survey, increasing from 19.2% to 25% and from 23.2% to 27%, respectively.

OCTA cautioned that comparisons between the two surveys should be interpreted carefully because the lists of prospective candidates presented to respondents were not identical.

Survey conducted nationwide

The non-commissioned survey was conducted from September 28 to October 4, 2026, involving 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above.

Using face-to-face interviews and probability-based sampling, OCTA asked participants whom they would likely vote for if the May 2028 senatorial elections were held at the time of the survey.

Respondents were allowed to select up to 12 names from a hypothetical list of prospective candidates.

The poll had a nationwide margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

OCTA emphasized that the findings represent public preferences during the survey period and should not be interpreted as predictions of election results.

The research firm also clarified that the names included in the survey do not constitute an official or final list of candidates for the 2028 elections.

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