The series of heavy rains experienced this  August is linked to the early impacts of El Niño, according to DOST-PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Solis.

“Ito na yung nararanasan natin na early impact ng El Niño na kung saan medyo matindi talaga yung ating habagat season at marami po tayong mga typhoon at super typhoon category,” she said

[“This is the early impact of El Niño that we are experiencing, where our southwest monsoon is slightly intense and we see more typhoons and super typhoons.”]

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), several parts of Luzon have experienced above-normal rainfall over the past few days, particularly in Benguet and Metro Manila. The rainfall amount recorded in just a few days surpassed the average monthly total of rainfall.

“Usually, dito sa Baguio City is around 963 mm of rain lang, pero (ang) naibuhos niya sa panahon ng habagat from August 5 to 10 ay mga more than 1,200 mm of rain,” Ana Solis said

[“Usually, Baguio City receives around 963 mm of rain, but the southwest monsoon poured more than 1,200 mm of rain from August 5 to 10.”]

Solis noted that rainfall in the area reached 135% of the monthly average between August 5 and 10 alone. If the basis is the record from August 1 to 10, the total rainfall is more than 138%.

La Union, Bataan, and Zambales were also included in the record that experienced heavy rainfall.

These heavy rainfalls were experienced during Tropical Depression Luis, Tropical Storm Maymay, and the southwest monsoon.

PAGASA warned that rainfall is still possible in the coming weeks and even in September. Based on the record during El Niño years, it shows that severe flooding events can still occur, just like what happened in Tropical Storm Ondoy in 2009.

In line with this, the weather bureau confirms that intense monsoon rains are possible amid El Niño.

“Possible pa rin yung mga pag-uulan ng ating habagat season ngayong panahon ng El Niño hangga't hindi natatapos itong ating habagat,” Solis said

[“Heavy rains amid southwest monsoon season is possible amid El Niño as long as the monsoon period persists.”]

PAGASA indicated that El Niño is expected to intensify by 2026 and early 2027, which may eventually lead to big rainfall deficits.

“Pero nakikita natin by end of December or January 2027, may mga areas na po na potential for dry spell yung prolonged drought condition natin,” Solis said

[“By the end of December or January 2027, there are areas that may face potential dry spells and prolonged drought conditions.”]

Dry conditions may affect five provinces on Luzon, eleven in Visayas, and 25 in Mindanao.

With reports from Rey Pelayo